Published 25 September 2026 · Last checked 10 October 2026 · Information, not immigration advice.
There is a lot of conflicting information going round at the moment. Care workers now have to wait ten years. No, fifteen. It applies to everyone already here. It starts in October.
Much of it is wrong. Some of it is half right, which is worse.
Updated 10 October 2026. Two things have moved since this was first published. 8 October has now passed — those rule changes took effect, and none of them touched settlement waiting times. And the Home Secretary has told MPs that the policy will be set out later this year, with one sentence that matters more than anything else on this page: "the rules that apply to you are the rules in force at the point of your application." Everything else below still stands.
This article tries to cut through the noise. Everything below links to the official source, so you can check any of it yourself.
We cover four things. What the rules are today. What is only a plan. What Parliament has said about that plan. And what you can do while nobody knows the answer.
This is our own read of what has been published. It is not advice about your own case. At the end we show you where to get that, for free.
Two words, quickly. ILR means indefinite leave to remain. That is settlement — the right to stay with no time limit and no sponsor. Earned settlement is the government's name for a new system it wants to build. In it, how long you wait would depend on your circumstances instead of being a fixed number of years.
The settlement rules are the ones that were already there. On a work visa you normally qualify after five years in the UK. GOV.UK still sets this out on its indefinite leave to remain page.
The most recent rule changes were put before Parliament on 3 September 2026. The document is called HC 584. Most of it took effect on 8 October 2026, and nothing newer has been laid since.
It covers victims of modern slavery, victims of domestic abuse, Erasmus+, the EU Settlement Scheme and student money rules.
It says nothing about earned settlement. It does not change the waiting time for anybody. You can read it for yourself here.
So if you reach five years and apply before the rules change, you are judged under today's rules. Nothing is stopping you doing that now.
The government ran a consultation from November 2025 to 12 February 2026. The paper is called A Fairer Pathway to Settlement. Well over 100,000 people and organisations replied.
The plan swaps a fixed waiting time for one that moves up and down.
| What is proposed | The wait |
|---|---|
| Most people | 10 years |
| Jobs below degree level (RQF 6) | 15 years |
| Earning over £50,270 | 5 years |
| Earning over £125,140 | 3 years |
| Public service jobs at degree level or above | Up to 5 years off |
| English at C1, higher than required | 1 year off |
| Claiming public funds | 5 to 10 years added |
You would only get one reduction — the biggest one. They do not add up. Everyone would also need a clean record, English at B2, earnings above £12,570, and no unpaid NHS, tax or government debt. Partners and children would be judged on their own circumstances. They would no longer settle automatically when you do.
What B1, B2 and C1 mean. These are levels on a scale used across Europe to describe how well someone uses a language. B1 is everyday English — you can handle normal situations at work and in daily life. B2 is a step up, roughly A-level standard, enough to follow a detailed discussion in your own field. C1 is higher again and close to fluent. GOV.UK explains which qualifications count at each level.
The 15-year wait is not aimed at a sector. It is drawn at RQF level 6 — which is a fancy way of describing a bachelor's degree qualification.
One line separates people who work the same shift.
Published analysis puts it plainly. Many care workers who arrived from 2022 would have settled in 2027 under today's rules. Under the proposal they might wait until 2037.
The same line affects the discount for public service work. As drafted, that discount only applies to jobs at degree level or above. So it would not reach care workers at all.
Nobody knows yet. Anyone who tells you they know is guessing.
The consultation proposed that the new rules would cover people already in the UK who have not yet settled. It also said those close to qualifying would come under the new rules as soon as the rules changed.
Whether there will be protections for people part-way through is still being decided. No cut-off date has been published.
In September the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, told the Home Affairs Committee that the policy covers "a broader range than simply new arrivals", and that she was "very aware that a large group of people who arrived in 2022" would otherwise qualify in February 2027. On protections for people part-way through, she said there are "a range of different options available" — from keeping the five-year route for some groups to longer transitions for others — and that this is "policy to be settled".
So it is still undecided. But it is being actively weighed, and February 2027 is the date the government itself is working back from.
The scale is large. Free Movement, a specialist immigration law site, estimates around 1.35 million people already in the UK could be affected, including about 309,000 children.
One thing the government has said flatly: "We will not, and would never, take away settled status from those who have already been granted it." If you already have ILR, it is safe.
Two committees have reported. Neither gave the plan an easy ride.
The House of Commons Home Affairs Committee reported on 13 March 2026. It accepted the case for reform. It did not accept the method: "It is odd and unnecessary to use RQF skill levels as a proxy for income… rather than assessing income directly."
It said a 15-year route should be based on what people actually earn, not their job title. It warned that "extending routes to settlement for care workers will have unintended consequences." It said children who grow up here should be settled by 18. And it said getting the changes right matters more than doing them quickly.
The House of Lords Justice and Home Affairs Committee reported in July 2026. It went further. Applying longer waits to people already here would be "manifestly unfair", it said, and possibly unlawful. It also criticised the lack of an impact assessment.
NHS Employers replied to the consultation on 13 February 2026. It said all health and care staff should get the same 10-year baseline, whatever their skill level. It called the 15-year plan unfair and bad for keeping staff. It said the cost would fall hardest on low-paid workers, many of them women.
It would be a poor article that gave you only one case. Here is the government's.
Migration reached levels not seen before. The number of people granted settlement rose with it. Settlement also opens the door to public funds, and the proposals say plainly that changing when that starts is part of the point.
The principle offered is this. Settlement should reflect what someone has put in, not just how long they have been here. A system that adjusts for contribution is fairer than one that treats everyone the same.
Both committees agreed contribution matters. Their objection was to the measure. Judging it by qualification level rather than by earnings or by the job itself produces results nobody intended.
Some changes are already law. They get lost in the noise about ten years.
These are the questions coming up most often in groups, forums and advice services.
Is it ten years now?
No. It is a proposal. The rules have not changed.
What happened on 8 October 2026?
Nothing about settlement. HC 584 took effect that day and it does not touch waiting times. If you saw that date shared as the day everything changed, it was wrong.
When will we know?
No firm date. In September the Home Secretary said decisions were coming "very soon" and that the policy would be set out "later this year". Nothing had been put before Parliament as of 10 October 2026.
I am already here. Will it apply to me?
Under the proposal, yes — unless protections are added for people part-way through. That is still being decided.
Will the years I have already done count?
Still not decided — the single biggest unanswered question. The Home Secretary has said there are "a range of different options" for protecting people part-way through, including keeping the five-year route for some groups.
I already have ILR. Am I affected?
No. The government has said it would never take settled status away from someone who already has it.
I am close to five years. Should I apply now?
Today's rules still apply today. And the Home Secretary has been explicit: "the rules that apply to you are the rules in force at the point of your application, not when you arrived in the country." That is as close to a straight answer as anyone has given — the date you apply is what counts, so waiting carries a risk that applying does not. Get advice on your own case; the link is below.
I am a care worker. Is it really fifteen years?
That is what is proposed for jobs below degree level. It is not law, and both committees pushed back on it hard.
What about my partner and children?
Under the proposal they would each be judged on their own circumstances. They would no longer settle when you do. A committee recommended that children who grow up here should be settled by 18. That is a recommendation, not a decision.
I am not in the UK yet. Can I still come?
Not as a care worker from overseas — that route closed on 22 July 2025. Other routes are open and unchanged. But be honest with yourself about the risk: if the proposal becomes law, anyone arriving after it would be inside the new system from day one.
Will it cost more?
Yes, a lot. A longer wait means more visa extensions. It also means paying the health surcharge for longer — that is the NHS fee you pay up front with each visa, currently £1,035 a year for most adults. Analysis by Free Movement puts family costs over a decade at more than £70,000.
Someone has offered to fast-track my ILR. Should I pay?
No. Nobody can fast-track it, and nobody knows what the rules will be. Anyone selling certainty right now is selling something they do not have.
Nothing here is advice about you. Your situation may turn on details this page cannot see.
Immigration advice in the UK is regulated. Anyone giving it must be registered with the Immigration Advice Authority, or be a solicitor or barrister. Many charities and law centres give regulated advice free.
GOV.UK runs the official search: find an immigration adviser. Check anyone who offers you help against that register. Do it before you pay them anything, or tell them anything.
This is moving quickly, and you should not have to rely on anybody's summary — including ours. Two official sources update whenever something changes, and both are free.
This story is not finished. When it changes, we will re-check this page and re-date it. If you find something here that is out of date, please tell us. We would rather fix it than have you quietly stop trusting us.
Sources and last check. Last checked 10 October 2026 against: Statement of changes to the Immigration Rules HC 584 (3 September 2026); A Fairer Pathway to Settlement; the House of Commons Library briefing Changes to UK visa and settlement rules after the 2025 immigration white paper (updated 24 September 2026); the Home Affairs Committee report on earned settlement (HC 1409, 13 March 2026); the House of Lords Justice and Home Affairs Committee report Settlement, Citizenship and Integration (HL Paper 13, July 2026); NHS Employers' consultation response (13 February 2026); Free Movement (7 April 2026) for the numbers affected and the cost estimates; the Greater Manchester Immigration Aid Unit briefing (August 2026); the GOV.UK list of every statement of changes, checked 10 October 2026 — HC 584 remains the most recent; the Home Secretary's evidence to the Home Affairs Committee (September 2026); and GOV.UK guidance on indefinite leave to remain. Where something is a proposal rather than law, we have said so. If you spot something out of date, please tell us — we would rather fix it than leave it.
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